Workforce
The First-Rung Problem: AI, Labor, and the Coming Precariat
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Why it matters: The AI labor story everyone's watching for is mass unemployment. The one already happening is quieter — a shrinking first rung on the career ladder, and a generation of early-career workers locked out before they start. Co-authored with Dr. Maha Hosain Aziz, Arvinder Singh Kang, and Justin Bérubé, this paper tries to get ahead of it rather than describe it after the fact.
Key takeaways:
Entry-level hiring compression, not mass layoffs, is the earliest visible sign of AI-driven labor disruption — creating a "missing cohort" of early-career professionals.
Introduces the AI Anxiety Index, a cross-country early-warning tool for spotting where automation risk is turning into social and institutional strain.
Policy response should focus on preserving career mobility, not just managing job loss — including AI Labor Impact Statements and a proposed Global AI Workforce Compact.
Published: Policy Paper · The Digital Economist · March 11, 2026
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